The delivery calendar reveals a concentrated timing of deliveries between 2025 and 2029 with a peak of market debuts expected in 2027
The container shipping industry is poised for unprecedented growth, with the past year seeing a new record order book for new cellular vessels.
Major new contracts
According to Bimco, containership orders have reached a record 8.3 million TEU (container unit of measurement) by the end of 2024, surpassing the previous peak of 7.8 million TEU set in early 2023. Despite record deliveries of 2.9 million TEU in the past twelve months, the order book continued to expand with major new contracts totalling 4.4 million TEU in 2024.
92% of the order-book capacity is made up of vessels of 8,000 TEU or larger. The largest segment, 12-17,000 TEU, represents 46% of the order-book capacity,” explained Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at Bimco.
Chinese shipyards emerged as the main beneficiaries of this boom, securing 72% of total new orders, followed by South Korean and Japanese shipyards with market shares of 22% and 5% respectively.
According to Bimco, the delivery calendar reveals a concentrated timing of ships to be delivered between 2025 and 2029, with the peak of market debuts expected in 2027, with 2.2 million TEUs leaving the yards.
Threat to shipping companies
While this significant increase in hold supply poses a threat to shipping companies’ revenues and profitability, it should also be taken into account that the sector is facing the challenge of ship renewal and the transition to new fuels; two factors that will put many older hulls out of the market.
The average fleet age has increased by 1.4 years since the start of 2020, with vessels 20 years or older now accounting for 11% of the total fleet capacity (the average useful age of a cargo ship is 25 years).
The Red Sea crisis
Looking ahead, Rasmussen said, the continued instability and insecurity in the Red Sea could impact fleet growth: “Ship demolition is likely to be limited. Therefore, average annual fleet growth over the next five years could be above 3%.” Circumnavigation of Africa and the resulting lengthening of the routes navigated are keeping shipping freight rates high.
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