A flood of new container capacity will soon be arriving in global waters, even more so than previously estimated. Expressing concerns along these lines is a report from Linerlytica, which estimates the global orderbook for new container ships at 10.4 million TEU, or approximately 31.7% of current capacity, driven by the rush to build orders observed particularly over the past 12 months.
This, analysts note, is the largest volume observed since 2010, the culmination of a period of massive fleet expansion and resulting overcapacity that “took 10 years to clear.” This orderbook could also be joined by a further 1 million TEU, corresponding to pending orders that have not yet been formalized.
Among the major operators in the sector, Wan Hai is leading the charge in relative terms, currently holding an orderbook equal to 67% of its existing fleet. Among the top players, MSC—already the world’s leading operator by capacity—has 36% of its newbuildings in the pipeline, while CMA CGM, in third place, expects 41% of its newbuildings.
A more cautious policy
Maersk, which is known to be pursuing a more cautious policy, has orders equal to 19% of its existing fleet, the same share as its ally (in Gemini) Hapag Lloyd. The Danish company has previously stated that its orders were aimed at replacing and modernizing the existing fleet and therefore would not contribute to a potential overall capacity increase.
As noted by Splash 24/7, the estimate of a global orderbook of 10.4 million TEU is currently the highest among those provided by various industry analyst firms. However, Clarkson, for example, estimates an orderbook of 9.87 million TEU, is not significantly different.
Xeneta, for its part, highlighted that, taking the global container hold capacity in TEUs for 2019 as 100, the current available capacity stands at 145, while container transport demand, even starting from a base of 100, is now 113.
A new record
Earlier this year, Bimco (Baltic and International Maritime Council, which represents global shipowners) also released its estimates, which calculated a global orderbook of 8.3 million TEU at the end of 2014. According to the findings, this represents a new record after 2023 (when it reached 7.8 million TEU), supported by orders for 4.4 million TEU secured in 2024 alone.
At in the last four years
The association also noted that in the last four years, only 166 vessels, for a total of 256,000 TEU, had been earmarked for demolition. In the report, Bimco added that even if all ships 20 years or older were sent to scrapyards over the next five years, the global fleet would reach 35.8 million TEU by the end of 2029, assuming no new orders were signed in the meantime
Related : CMA CGM overtakes MAERSK in global container rankings
Source : Shipping Italy
