 By : Pablo Rodas-Martini
Donald Trump has long nursed an obsession with the Panama Canal. Now he is adding the Suez Canal to his list. In a fiery Truth Social post, Trump wrote:
“American Ships, both Military and Commercial, should be allowed to pass free of charge, through the Panama and Suez Canals! Those Canals would not exist without the United States of America. I’ve asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio to immediately take care of, and memorialize, this situation!”
Trump has a shred of a case
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With Panama, Trump has a shred of a case. The US did indeed build the Canal de Panamá between 1904 and 1914, after monumental engineering challenges and a staggering loss of life. The US invested more than $375 million at the time—about $11-12 billion in today’s dollars.
dollars.Free passage, or at least reduced tolls, could certainly have been part of the Carter-Torrijos agreements signed in 1977.
There is precedent. Colombia
Moreover, there is precedent. Colombia—hurt by Panama’s sudden US-backed independence in 1903—negotiated a 30% discount for its ships under the 1974 Treaty of Trade, Friendship and Navigation with Panama.
US-flagged ships accounted for only 1.9% of all laden transits
If Panama were to give US ships free passage or deep discounts, the cost would be a rounding error. In 2024, US-flagged ships accounted for only 1.9% of all laden transits and 3.2% of all ballast transits through the canal. The entire US coastwise trade—including Alaska and Hawaii—accounted for only 3.2% of total transits.
A discount would be symbolic, not seismic
A discount would be symbolic, not seismic, and a glaring reminder of the negligible importance of the American merchant fleet, gutted after more than a century of domestic protection under the 1920 Jones Act.
It seems a small concession
If that’s the price Panama has to pay to keep Trump from demanding the “return” of the canal, it seems a small concession. A wise Panamanian government might well agree—quietly and pragmatically—but not too quickly… with Trump, the more and the faster you give, the more he demands.
Suez Canal : That is a Trumpian fantasyÂ
But the Suez Canal Authority?! That is a Trumpian fantasy plucked out of thin air. To say that “those canals would not exist without the United States” is frankly ludicrous
SC : Built by the French
The Suez Canal was built by the French, and inaugurated in 1869, when the US was still reeling from the bloody wreckage of its Civil War, which had only ended in 1865.
The Suez Canal is only a “little” further from US shores.
Moreover, American merchant shipping could barely handle its own short-sea trade, defined by the US MARAD as voyages of less than 2,000 nautical miles. The Suez Canal is only a “little” further from US shores.Free passage would therefore only apply to naval vessels.
Pay for its mercenary labour
If this is its demand as compensation for its relentless attacks on the Houthis in Yemen, it should say so. It should admit that it is asking Egypt—the main beneficiary if Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping are suppressed—to pay for its mercenary labour.
Egypt could easily reply, with a wry smile
But Egypt could easily reply, with a wry smile, that missiles fired from planes and destroyers will never defeat the Houthis. In short, the mercenary is demanding payment for a service Egypt did not ask for, and for a task that is far from complete
