It seems the last alliances may be shaped – shipping map and global trade movement in 2025 according to Sea- Intelligence analysis
Gemini, Premier Alliance, and MSC have all announced their 2025 networks. Ocean Alliance has not yet announced a ‘2025’ network, and given that the alliance structure continues unchanged, it is reasonable to assume only minor network changes for them.
Figure 1 shows the number of distinct port-pairs offered by each alliance (MSC is also referred to as ‘alliance’ for semantic practicalities) on both Asia-North America and Asia-Europe. ‘Distinct’ means that one port-pair, even if it is offered on multiple services, is counted only once.
Strong competitive pressure
Sea-Intelligence calculated the level of competitiveness across the ports being serviced directly. On both trades, half of the direct port-pairs are offered by a single alliance which gives that alliance a unique product.
Conversely, 5%-14% of the direct port-pairs are offered by all four alliances, which will result in strong competitive pressure on those port-pairs
MSC now accounts for 20% of the global container fleet
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Four alliances
Also calculated the level of competitiveness across the ports being serviced directly. On both trades, half of the direct port-pairs are offered by a single alliance which gives that alliance a unique product. Conversely, 5%-14% of the direct port-pairs are offered by all four alliances, which will result in strong competitive pressure on those port-pairs
Greater focus
“It is not surprising to see Gemini offer far fewer direct port-port pairs, as this is a direct result of the alliance’s deliberate network design strategy, with their greater focus on shuttles.
On Asia-Europe, MSC will offer the most direct port-port combinations, followed by Ocean Alliance, and Premier Alliance. On Asia-North America,
Different strategy.
MSC and Ocean Alliance both offer the same level of direct connectivity, however, Ocean Alliance has a higher call frequency on the port pairs they offer,” stated Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence.
From a shipper perspective, Asia-Europe has some very different service concepts to choose from, with MSC offering 3½ times more direct connections than Gemini.
In Asia-North America, there is a high level of competitive pressure from MSC and Ocean Alliance to offer direct connections, while Gemini is following an entirely different strategy.
Distinct
According to the Danish shipping data analysis firm, “distinct” refers to each unique port pair being counted only once, even if multiple services offer the same pair. For shippers, Asia-Europe offers a range of service options, with MSC providing 3.5 times more direct connections than Gemini.
Level of competitiveness
On the Asia-North America route, MSC and Ocean Alliance offer significant competitive pressure with their direct connections, while Gemini appears to be adopting a completely different approach.
