Unctad would lead the year to close with a positive trend and with total trades of over 32 trillion dollars.
Global trade recorded in the first quarter of 2024, according to estimates presented by Unctad in its journal Global Trade Update, grew more than expected, pushed upwards by the U.S. economy and emerging Asian economies.
The latest analyses of the UN agency for trade show an increase in the set of about 1% in the first three months of the year for goods on the previous quarter (thus improving the forecast of +0.7% widespread in the latest update), while the exchanges of services increase in parallel by 1.5%.
Istantanee’ forecasts
According to its most recent nowcasts – ‘istantanee’ forecasts, updated from week to week – the UN news agency explained that it expects “strong growth in the second quarter,” which could result in an overall +2% for global trade in the first half of 2024. These two trends would lead to a $250 billion increase in commodity trade and about 100 in those of services for the first half of 2024 compared to the second half 2023. The trend, if confirmed, according to Unctad would lead the year to close with a positive trend and with total trades of over 32 trillion dollars.
International geopolitical tensions
However, they weigh on this trend several uncertainties, ranging from international geopolitical tensions to the growing costs of sea transport. Elements that will tend to have a positive impact on trade are the expected growth of global gross domestic product (estimated at +3%), an increase in the demand for solar energy products (batteries, panels, semiconductors) and related to the development of AI (servers, storage systems). In negative on their growth, however, new restrictive measures of trade (tie and the like) could weigh on their growth.
Major economies the highest growth
The Unctad report also notes that among the major economies the highest growth was found in particular in imports by Russia, the US and Brazil and exports from China and India (and to a lesser extent from Russia and the US). As for the European Union, in the period the UN agency recorded a sharp decline (-15% year-on-year in imports and a slight increase (+1%) in exports.
Widespread growth to the various segments
Finally, from the point of view, the analysis showed widespread growth to the various segments (compared to the previous quarter), with the exception of those of transport (-10% in value) and the communication assessment (-16%). On the other hand, good performance was in particular those of pharmaceutical products (+10%), metals (+8%) and textiles (+8%).
Unctad global trade in increase (+2_) in the first half of 2024 PDF
