Shipping to meet its 2030 target the industry will need to secure between 7 and 48 Mtoe of carbon-neutral fuels.
The push towards decarbonisation is slowing down rather than speeding up. With ambitious global goals looming ever larger on the horizon, what can we do to re-invigorate collective efforts? And profit from that push?
Ahead of next year’s Nor-Shipping, Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO Maritime DNV, says efficiency, timing and people are critical to “getting this show on the road.”
I’m a realist in spite of my optimistic !
Given the subject matter today, Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen seems remarkably optimistic.
“I’m a glass half full kind of guy,” comments the man in charge of maritime at the world’s leading classification society with a smile. “But I’m also a realist, and that means I’m aware of the scale of what lies ahead, and the need for pragmatic decision making.”
“Very little” chance of making decarbonisation
What lies ahead is decarbonisation, and the scale is the IMO goals of a 20% emissions reduction by 2030, a 70% cut by 2040, and full-scale decarbonisation by or around 2050.
Goals that, on today’s trajectory, Ørbeck-Nilssen says we have “very little” chance of making.
Get its foot on the accelerator
There’s a need, he stresses, for the industry to “get its foot on the accelerator.” However, he’s also keen to paint a picture that isn’t exclusively coloured green: “The fact of the matter is it makes as much commercial as environmental sense. There’s competitive advantage waiting for those owners and operators prepared to think differently and adopt innovation here.”
Green fuel challenge
Starting in the slow lane, the DNV chief nods to low scrapping volumes as a key indicator of glacial fleet renewal. This is unsurprising, he opines, in the context of high charter rates, continued uncertainty over long-term solutions (and the scale of investment required in those) and the lack of adequate progress in green fuel supply.
DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050
Here he points to DNV’s recent Maritime Forecast to 2050 which details that for shipping to meet its 2030 target the industry will need to secure between 7 and 48 Mtoe of carbon-neutral fuels. However, total global production of these energy sources is only expected to reach between 44 and 63 Mtoe by that juncture.
What can we do?
“The cross-sector demand will be huge,” Ørbeck-Nilssen states, “from other transport modes, manufacturing, domestic supply, further industrial consumers, and more. Shipping has to stand in line here, so what can we do?”
Small steps, huge gains
Ørbeck-Nilssen is a long-time exponent of a “don’t let perfect be the enemy of good” philosophy, actively supporting the adoption of “less emitting” fuels, such as LNG, instead of waiting for shipping’s next silver bullet.
Growth of dual-fuel solutions
He’s pleased by the growth of dual-fuel solutions on the orderbook for the years to come, but today wants to shift focus to what can be done “right now, today” to start making the gains – both green and ‘greenback’ – all stakeholders want to see.
“Reducing energy losses, in other words greater efficiency, is the most straightforward way for the global fleet to cut fuel consumption, emissions, and, by extension, energy costs,” he says.
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