An additional 48,085 TEU could be trapped simply because vessels are running behind schedule.

The Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight issue 755 included a network stress test of the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28. The objective was to quantify the amount of deep-sea vessel capacity intended to leave the Persian Gulf while excluding any local feeder vessels not planned to leave the Gulf.

They calculated the potentially trapped capacity using carriers’ published schedules and applied them to two scenarios. In the "Baseline Scenario," which assumes that all deployed vessels operate with strict adherence to their published schedules and experience no delays, a minimum of 156,074 TEU of deep-sea capacity is potentially restricted.

The Adjusted Scenario 

However, when historical vessel delay buffers are applied to reflect realistic operational conditions, the restricted capacity under this "Adjusted Scenario" increases significantly to 204,159 TEU. The difference between the two scenarios indicates that an additional 48,085 TEU could be trapped simply because vessels are running behind schedule. This shows how existing network inefficiencies can worsen the impact of geopolitical disruptions.

Related : Hormuz stoppage will impact cost of living according to UNCTAD

The broader deep-sea network

The broader deep-sea network is also subject to immediate secondary spillover effects triggered by a sustained closure. Vessels currently en route to the Persian Gulf will be forced to abandon their rotations, resulting in sudden cargo displacement at alternative transshipment hubs outside the chokepoint, such as Salalah, Colombo, and Singapore. This sudden diversion will cause yard density to spike, which will degrade terminal productivity and create berthing delays for mainline vessels on completely unrelated trade lanes.

 Persian Gulf is a net-import region

Furthermore, since the Persian Gulf is a net-import region, these deep-sea services usually carry empty containers back to Asian manufacturing hubs. Simultaneously trapping over 200,000 TEU of capacity starves Asian export hubs of vital equipment, which could cause container shortages in the Far East.

About ; Sea-Intelligence

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