The conflict has caused the loss of 250,000 TEUs of weekly container shipping capacity, and carriers have invested significant effort and resources in establishing alternative routes.

[HONG KONG] :  With a third Chinese oil tanker en route and two already waiting near the Strait of Hormuz, these ships are set to be the first to leave the Persian Gulf since the US-Iran ceasefire took effect just a day ago. However, shipowners are still reviewing the terms of the truce, even as the status of the narrow waterway is scrutinised

Early on Thursday morning, the Cospearl Lake (IMO 9337171, MMSI 477242700 -sailing under the flag of Hong Kong ), a Very-Large crude carrier with links to China's state-owned Cosco Shipping Corp., and He Rong Hai, owned by a smaller entity, appeared to be travelling east at near-top speeds, according to ship-tracking data. However, they then came to a virtual halt. A few hours later, another Cosco-linked VLCC, the Yuan Hua Hu, began its eastward journey.

Two Chinese Tankers

Meanwhile, the Cosco Pearl Lake, a Crude Oil Tanker which is linked to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping, and the He Rong Hai, a Crude Oil Tanker (IMO 9603192, MMSI 412311000 -sailing under the flag of China.  )  which is owned by a smaller entity, appeared to be travelling east in the Persian Gulf at near top speed in the early hours of Thursday morning (9 April), according to ship-tracking data. Both ships are indicating Chinese ownership on their tracking systems, a move typically made for safety reasons ahead of Iran-approved transits.

Related : ICS : Statement on the conditional ceasefire between the United States and Iran

It is not yet certain that the crossing 

It is not yet certain that the crossing will be successful, as several vessels have turned back at the last moment, and there has been little change in traffic over the past day. If the two vessels continue on their current trajectories, they could cross later on Thursday. If this happens, they will be the first large non-Iranian tankers to make it through since the truce was announced. 

The air freight sector returns to normal

The fragile ceasefire agreed by the US and Iran, along with the potential deal to be discussed in the coming days, could see the air freight sector return to normal. This process could take 'one or two months', but the outlook for container shipping is less clear.

The conflict has caused the loss of 250,000 TEUs of weekly

Xeneta has stated that shipping companies will initially adopt a cautious approach by conducting trial voyages only through the Strait. Consequently, alternative routes to the region will remain operational, including land bridges such as these from Khor Fakkan, Sohar, and Jeddah.

According to Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, the conflict has caused the loss of 250,000 TEUs of weekly container shipping capacity, and carriers have invested significant effort and resources in establishing alternative routes. These routes will not be abandoned simply because of a two-week ceasefire. He added that this creates a brief opportunity to move the most urgent cargo.

According to Xeneta, the impact on freight rates will not be seen for 'a month or two'.However, the issue of confidence, on the part of both passengers and insurance companies, will likely remain.

Given the current situation

Given the current situation, the priority will be to clear the accumulated cargo at alternative ports, particularly Nhava Sheva, and transport it to Jebel Ali as quickly as possible. The fragile nature of the truce means that ships transporting cargo by sea in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to face the risk of a renewed blockade. Furthermore, many questions remain unanswered regarding control of this, which will also help the Strait and the toll that will be imposed by the Iranian authorities, particularly as falling jet fuel prices make this all the more likely.

The evolution of air freight is likely to differ

.When it comes to his own organisation, however, the evolution of air freight is likely to differ. Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at the analyst firm, emphasised that the war was primarily a 'capacity issue' for the sector. Therefore, when more flights use Middle Eastern airspace, pressure on existing cargo holds will ease, pushing rates down.  Falling jet fuel prices will also help with this. However, according to IATA, this will not happen immediately.

Source : Agencies 
 # Nhava Sheva #Xeneta #Niall van de Wouw #Jebel Ali #air freight #Peter Sand #ceasefire #Cosco Pearl Lake #Hormuz #Rong Hai # Chinese oil tanker# Iran Truce