All fuels and technologies have a role to play in shipping’s road to net zero. However, many will take time to mature and scale. Low-greenhouse gas variants of fuels such as ammonia and methanol

In an era of regulatory change, geopolitical uncertainty and commercial pressure, maintaining decarbonisation efforts can be challenging. How can you plan for the future when the present is so demanding? With Nor-Shipping 2027 in mind, Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria, CEO of Maritime at DNV, believes that the most obvious issue for shipping companies to address is also the most important.

 She says that while a wide range of new fuels and technologies will ultimately drive shipping towards its ambitious goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, energy-efficiency measures are the key to unlocking valuable short-term gains across the current fleet, from operational improvements to advanced retrofit technologies and capital-intensive upgrades.

Latest paper on shore power

The Maritime CEO at DNV is discussing DNV’s extensive catalogue of white papers — from its industry-leading Maritime Forecast to 2050 to more focused publications on fuels such as methanol and biomethane, as well as work on onboard carbon capture, energy efficiency, and its latest paper on shore power. In a world of uncertain regulation and geopolitical turbulence, these white papers help bring clarity and direction to the complex challenge of maritime decarbonisation.

A role to play in shipping’s road to net zero.

Saenz de Santa Maria argues that all fuels and technologies have a role to play on shipping’s road to net zero. However, many will take time to mature and scale. Low-greenhouse gas variants of fuels such as ammonia and methanol, for example, are still far from reaching the volumes needed to make a meaningful impact, while most of the global fleet is not yet equipped to use them.

According to DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050

While progress continues on these fuels and technologies, Saenz de Santa Maria points to a more immediate opportunity: Tools that already exist to deliver significant impact across around 90% of today’s global fleet, which still runs on conventional fuels, including both operational measures and larger-scale retrofit solutions.

According to DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 (2025 edition), energy-efficiency measures can deliver up to 16% reductions in fuel consumption by 2030, equivalent to reducing emissions from around 55,000 of the smallest vessels in the global fleet. Or as de Santa Maria explains: “In my view, energy-efficiency measures have the potential to become one of the most scalable decarbonisation levers.”

Strategic advantage

However, if we emphasise the scale of emissions reductions, there is a risk that energy efficiency measures will be viewed primarily as a compliance tool. According to Saenz de Santa Maria, however, this is only part of the picture: less fuel use obviously means lower fuel costs. In today's unpredictable geopolitical landscape, where energy security and prices are no longer guaranteed, this is arguably more important than ever.

Improved energy-efficiency

She added that measures to improve energy efficiency mean you're less exposed to changes in fuel prices because you're using less of whatever you're burning. ‘It’s also worth considering the impact on investment rather than operations. As we’ve seen recently, when fuel prices move, the payback time on energy-efficiency measures changes too.”

DNV modelled an existing VLCC with a scrubber

A powerful example is introduced here by Saenz de Santa Maria. DNV modelled an existing VLCC with a scrubber, considering a shaft generator retrofit. With February 2026 fuel prices (approximately USD 670 per tonne), the payback period was 18 years. Fast forward to April, however, and with fuel prices having skyrocketed to USD 1,600 per tonne, that time had been cut back to just eight years. She emphasises that this demonstrates how quickly fuel prices can be altered. She also points out that the interaction between energy-efficiency measures, greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing regulations (e.g. EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime) and fuel options can have a significant impact.

A further modelling 

Saenz de Santa Maria then presents a further modelling exercise, this time showing a Capesize bulker on a Brazil-Rotterdam route that has achieved a 20% efficiency gain. Using marine gas oil (at today's prices), this saves USD 60,000 per voyage. Nevertheless, if the owner had been using green methanol, the savings would have been as high as USD 300,000.

The most common pattern 

She elucidates: 'The most common pattern we see is picking individual measures in response to immediate compliance pressure, and it is also the least effective. What works is having a strategy. This involves understanding where your fleet stands today — you cannot manage what you cannot measure, so reliable data is essential — and then creating a roadmap that reflects your vessels' specific characteristics, trading patterns and commercial structure. There is no universal playbook.”

Related: An exclusive interview with Nor-Shipping CEO Sidsel Norvik for Maritime Tickers.

Shipping’s transition to net zero

However, she does have one universal recommendation: 'Shipping’s transition to net zero will depend on a combination of fuels, technologies, and operational measures, but that doesn’t mean we should wait for those solutions to mature completely.' Companies can act on energy-efficiency measures today, creating both an immediate impact and a stronger foundation for the future. The important thing is to take a strategic approach. Rather than holding back in the expectation that alternative fuels will solve everything in the future, companies should start implementing energy-efficiency measures now and build on them. Those that delay and then rely on expensive fuels to close their compliance gap might end up paying significantly more over time.” The priority, then, is to develop a clear, realistic strategy and pathway for your fleet, operational needs and balance sheet today.

AI: The Right Approach

Saenz de Santa Maria is on hand to reassure us that help is available from Class Societies such as DNV. She stresses that third-party verification of solutions to open, agreed standards can “convert claimed savings into bankable evidence”.
She continues: 'DNV offers advisory services and publishes recommended practices for verifying hull performance, wind-assisted propulsion and air lubrication, specifically to address this.' Without transparent, independently assessed data, the industry cannot build commercial models for financing energy-efficiency measures, such as pay-as-you-save schemes. So, in my view, getting the verification framework right is as important as the technologies themselves.”

Related: DNV to certify the UK's Northern Endurance Partnership CO₂ transport network

The paramount importance of AI

On the subject of technology, Saenz de Santa Maria and DNV have AI front of mind: ' What AI can enable is continuous, data-driven decision-making across an entire fleet with a level of precision and speed that simply wasn’t achievable before.' However, AI is only as reliable as the data and organisational processes behind it. Shipping still has gaps in data quality and transparency. Without addressing these, AI can become a source of added complexity rather than a driver of improvement.'

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