Under the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) closed scenario, demand is expected to grow by up to 1% in 2026 and by 0.5–1.5% in 2027.

Filipe Gouveia, BIMCO's Shipping Analysis Manager, says that the war in Iran and the resulting disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have increased uncertainty for the global economy and the dry bulk market."Around 4% of dry bulk cargoes and tonne-mile demand typically sail through the strait, and currently around 210 ships — equivalent to roughly 1% of the dry bulk fleet — are trapped in the Persian Gulf," he says.

It is difficult to predict. 

Transits may resume at any time. This makes it difficult to predict. We present two forecast scenarios. The 'SoH closed' scenario assumes the strait remains effectively closed indefinitely, while the 'SoH open' scenario assumes an imminent reopening. The longer the closure persists, the more the market outlook will align with the 'SoH closed' scenario.

Provided the narrow channel stays practically shut

"Provided the narrow channel stays practically shut, the supply/demand ratio is predicted to deteriorate marginally in 2026, though from a high starting point, and to deteriorate substantially in 2027. However, if transits resume soon, we forecast that market conditions will remain strong during this year and the next, as the supply/demand balance will strengthen in 2026 and weaken slightly in 2027,” says Mr Gouveia.

Both scenarios 

Both scenarios are expected to result in similar supply growth. Under the closed SoH scenario, fleet supply is forecast to grow by 0.5–1.5% in 2026 and by 3–4% in 2027. Under the open SoH scenario, supply growth is only around 1 percentage point higher in 2026. High deliveries in the Panamax and Supramax segments are driving fleet growth, while ship recycling is expected to remain low.

Related : The impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on global maritime traffic

Hormuz (SoH) closed scenario,

The scenarios differ more on the demand side. Under the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) closed scenario, demand is expected to grow by up to 1% in 2026 and by 0.5–1.5% in 2027. However, if the strait reopens, demand growth is forecast to be around 2.5 percentage points (pp) higher in 2026 and 1.5 pp higher in 2027, driven by stronger minor bulk and grain cargo volumes. Typically, around 9% and 6% of minor bulk and grain cargo volumes transit the strait

 Lower tonne-mile demand by 2%.

The complete return of dry bulk shipping to the Red Sea has been postponed due to the ongoing conflict in Iran, which has given rise to an escalation in the perceived risk of traversing the region. However, if safety conditions improve and ships return to the area in full, the need for rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope would end. This would reduce average sailing distances and lower tonne-mile demand by 2%.

The arrival of El Niño

"The arrival of El Niño has introduced another element of uncertainty to the outlook for demand in the dry bulk sector. Although the weather impacts associated with this phenomenon are not guaranteed, they could potentially disrupt Panama Canal transits, increase coal demand, and affect grain harvests unevenly across regions,” stated Mr Gouveia.

# El Niño #Filipe Gouveia #Strait of Hormuz (SoH) #Persian Gulf #Cape of Good Hope #Red Sea #dry bulk # the closure #Panama Canal